SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ZIKA VIRUS DISEASE AND CONTROL BY WOLBACHIA-JNFECTED AEDES AEGYPT MOSQUITOES

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ZIKA VIRUS DISEASE

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis of parameters contained in the reproduction number of an infectious disease, helps to reveal how the parameters of the disease dynamics impact on the spread of the disease, and in that case, suggest appropriate method of control for the disease. The aim of this paper is to determine appropriate natural control of zika, a Flavivirus disease which spreads through bites of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The dynamics of the disease is modelled through a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, and the expression for the basic reproduction number of the disease is obtained. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the basic reproduction number, which reveals that, biting rate of the mosquito, extrinsic incubation rate of zika virus and probability of transmission of zika virus from mosquito to human are the major parameters that increase the spread of the disease. Hence, reducing the values of these parameters will reduce the spread of zika virus disease. This suggests the use of wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to replace the natural mosquitoes since they possess the characteristics revealed by the sensitivity analysis. Stability analysis and numerical plots confirm that zika virus disease can be controlled if the natural Aedis aegypti mosquitoes are replaced by the wlbachia-infected ones.