MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF LASSA FEVER TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA: INSIGHTS FOR CONTROL STRATEGIES

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF LASSA FEVER TRANSMISSION

Abstract

Lassa fever is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease endemic in
West Africa, with Nigeria experiencing recurrent outbreaks that
pose persistent public health challenges. Transmission occurs
primarily through contact with infected Mastomys rodents or
exposure to infectious bodily fluids from humans.

We develop a deterministic compartmental model incorporating
rodent-to-human, human-to-human, and indirect environmental
transmission pathways. The model is parameterized using recent
Nigerian epidemiological data, including NCDC reports. The
basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is analytically derived, with
stability analysis showing that the disease-free equilibrium is
locally asymptotically stable when $R_0 < 1$ and unstable when
$R_0 > 1$, consistent with empirical estimates for Nigerian
outbreaks.

Numerical simulations evaluate control strategies including
public awareness campaigns, rodent control, and hospitalization
with isolation. While individual interventions produce moderate
reductions, combined implementation yields the largest decreases
in peak infections and cumulative cases.

Despite data limitations and parameter variability, the model
provides quantitative insight into transmission drivers and
highlights the effectiveness of integrated control strategies,
supporting evidence-based planning for Lassa fever mitigation
in Nigeria and providing a framework adaptable to other endemic
West African settings.

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